ARV is a range, not a single number
After-repair value is the price a fully renovated property would command if listed on the open market today. That definition sounds simple, but it hides a real problem: no two data sources weight the same factors the same way. An automated valuation model smooths outliers; an agent's BPO leans on recent listings they know personally; a tax assessment lags the market by a year or more. Any one of these can be off by 10-15% on a given property, which on a $250,000 ARV is $25,000-$37,500 — enough to eliminate your entire spread on a wholesale deal.
Treating ARV as a range rather than a point estimate forces better discipline. Before touching an offer calculator, establish a low, mid, and high scenario using separate comp pulls. If those three scenarios land within 5% of each other, you have a tight range and can use the midpoint with confidence. If they spread wider than 10%, that spread is telling you something: either the property is in a transitional micro-market, or the comps you are using are not truly comparable. Resolve the spread before writing an offer, not after.
- Low scenario: use only the most conservative, closest comps
- Mid scenario: apply standard adjustments to the best comp set
- High scenario: include the strongest recent sales in a broader radius
- Flag any spread wider than 10% for additional research before proceeding
ARV built from a single data source is a guess, not a defensible number — use at least three independent sources before finalizing.
